Climate Change

Some countries in this area of North Africa, such as Egypt or Tunisia, have an economy with a relative presence of tourism activity. This is why they can be particularly affected by the effects of climate change, adding difficulties to an activity that has already shown signs of vulnerability given the geopolitical context of the last era. Tourism in these countries is largely focused on coastal areas, which will receive a greater economic, social and environmental impact.

These spatial and temporal changes caused by climate change may have impacts on the sustainability of tourism development. On the one hand, they can be detrimental from an economic and social point of view due to the loss of income from tourism and the entire associated value chain and, on the other hand, favourable from a resource management and biodiversity perspective, since the pressures on the environment and ecosystems will decrease in summer in the Mediterranean area.

The phenomenon of climate change is currently one of the challenges that can lead to major changes in the tourism industry in the Mediterranean, as we know it today, and in the very societies where it develops. This article exposes this problem, dealing with a global phenomenon in a major tourist destination such as the Mediterranean region.

Firstly, it contextualizes the climate of this destination where temperatures are one of the factors motivating tourists to visit. Secondly, the phenomenon of climate change and its possible consequences in the Mediterranean is analyzed. The changes produced by the effect of this phenomenon will require greater planning and management by all the actors in the tourism industry.

Thirdly, reference is made to how tourism contributes to climate change and what actions are being taken to mitigate the negative impacts. Finally, a series of reflections are presented that should be taken into account for future academic studies of climate change and its effect on tourism, as well as for the sustainable management of destinations.

The importance of climate in the Mediterranean region

Climatic factors such as temperatures, hours of sunshine and rain determine a large part of international tourism flows in Europe (Amelung and Viner, 2006). The popularity of the Mediterranean region is closely linked to the temperatures and climate, which are some of the most important resources of a tourist destination. Furthermore, as Nicholls (2006) states, the motivation of tourists when choosing their travel destination is largely associated with these factors.

The warm Mediterranean climate makes it currently one of the most ideal places for beach tourism during the summer season, especially in the northern Mediterranean area. This is also the case on the coasts of Morocco and Algeria, as a result of the cooling effect of the altitude of the Atlas Mountains, but not the rest of North Africa, where temperatures are better in spring and autumn.

In general, countries in the Mediterranean region are characterized by cool winters with moderate rainfall and hot, dry summers, although lack of rainfall can be problematic in terms of water supply and fire risk (Nicholls, 2006). The climatic preferences for beach vacations in the Mediterranean are defined by ideal temperatures between 27º and 32ºC. On the other hand, climate preferences for vacations in urban regions of the Mediterranean range from 20º to 26ºC.

Due to these marked differences between the seasons, seasonality becomes a key issue in the profitability of tourism in the Mediterranean region. This seasonality has consequences at the social, economic and environmental levels, because the impacts that the destination assumes at the tourism level present great differences throughout the year. Some examples would be the construction of infrastructures that are only amortized during one time of the year, the creation of unstable jobs, the increase of resource consumption and waste production, among others.

The phenomenon of climate change

Climate change is currently a topic of great global concern that has recently had greater media coverage articulated in movements such as the Fridays for Future, led mostly by young people. Today it is already recognized as a scientific certainty and, therefore, the exploration of its possible impacts on the human and natural environment is increasingly urgent.

The consequences of climate change in the Mediterranean

Climate change suggests a Mediterranean with higher temperatures in summer, making most destinations too hot for sightseeing. However, the region may become a more pleasant destination in spring and autumn.

Although the Mediterranean region may experience a decrease in tourists during the current peak season, it is likely that these declines will be offset by an increase in visitors during the spring and fall months. There is also potential for a much longer hot tourist season. Therefore, it may be that demand will not decrease as a result of climate change, but rather contribute to a change in the time when tourists will visit the region in the middle and end of the century.

As far as the climatic comfort of the tourist areas of the Mediterranean coast is concerned, an increase in the number of warm days, warm nights and the duration of heat waves is predicted. These are variables that, together with high values of humidity in the atmosphere, are related to the origin of sensations of discomfort that can affect the demand of tourists in this destination.

One possibility associated with global climate change is the increased occurrence of extreme weather events. In the Mediterranean, heat waves, winter rainfall and gales are more likely to intensify and become more frequent.

Climate change can also alter the distributions and composition of natural resources such as flora and fauna. In addition, it can put at risk the existence of endemic plants, marine biodiversity and healthy marine ecosystems. As stated by Amelung and Viner, it is difficult to evaluate the impacts of tourism on biodiversity, although it is important to study them in order to guarantee the diversity of land and water resources.

In addition to all of the above consequences, the North African area may suffer other effects due to its large desert areas. One of them is the greater desertification, causing changes in the landscape and degrading the ecosystem. Extreme drought can also have effects on communities, such as reduced crops, increased risk of fire, increased mortality of livestock and decreased water availability.